Recent polling averages place Die Linke ahead at 19-22%, with CDU and AfD clustered around 17-20%, Grüne near 16%, and SPD at 12-15% ahead of the 20 September Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus vote. This narrow spread among the top five parties sustains uncertainty over exact finishing positions, particularly for fourth place. Grüne's implied probability reflects its position just behind the leading trio in most surveys, while minor shifts in turnout among urban or eastern districts, late campaign momentum, or differential performance by top candidates such as Elif Eralp, Stefan Evers, or Kristin Brinker could reorder the middle pack. The short remaining timeline leaves limited room for further separation absent major events like coalition signals or turnout surges.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertLandtagswahl Berlin: 4. Platz
Landtagswahl Berlin: 4. Platz
Grüne 47%
Linke 19%
AfD 14%
CDU 11%
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
Grüne
47%
Linke
19%
AfD
14%
CDU
11%
SPD
7%
FDP
5%
BSW
4%
FW
3%
Grüne 47%
Linke 19%
AfD 14%
CDU 11%
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
Grüne
$2,724 Vol.
47%
Linke
$183 Vol.
19%
AfD
$36 Vol.
14%
CDU
$56 Vol.
11%
SPD
$36 Vol.
7%
FDP
$99 Vol.
5%
BSW
$51 Vol.
4%
FW
$84 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling averages place Die Linke ahead at 19-22%, with CDU and AfD clustered around 17-20%, Grüne near 16%, and SPD at 12-15% ahead of the 20 September Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus vote. This narrow spread among the top five parties sustains uncertainty over exact finishing positions, particularly for fourth place. Grüne's implied probability reflects its position just behind the leading trio in most surveys, while minor shifts in turnout among urban or eastern districts, late campaign momentum, or differential performance by top candidates such as Elif Eralp, Stefan Evers, or Kristin Brinker could reorder the middle pack. The short remaining timeline leaves limited room for further separation absent major events like coalition signals or turnout surges.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Markt eröffnet: Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volumen
$3,267Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling averages place Die Linke ahead at 19-22%, with CDU and AfD clustered around 17-20%, Grüne near 16%, and SPD at 12-15% ahead of the 20 September Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus vote. This narrow spread among the top five parties sustains uncertainty over exact finishing positions, particularly for fourth place. Grüne's implied probability reflects its position just behind the leading trio in most surveys, while minor shifts in turnout among urban or eastern districts, late campaign momentum, or differential performance by top candidates such as Elif Eralp, Stefan Evers, or Kristin Brinker could reorder the middle pack. The short remaining timeline leaves limited room for further separation absent major events like coalition signals or turnout surges.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$3,267Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place Die Linke ahead at 19-22%, with CDU and AfD clustered around 17-20%, Grüne near 16%, and SPD at 12-15% ahead of the 20 September Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus vote. This narrow spread among the top five parties sustains uncertainty over exact finishing positions, particularly for fourth place. Grüne's implied probability reflects its position just behind the leading trio in most surveys, while minor shifts in turnout among urban or eastern districts, late campaign momentum, or differential performance by top candidates such as Elif Eralp, Stefan Evers, or Kristin Brinker could reorder the middle pack. The short remaining timeline leaves limited room for further separation absent major events like coalition signals or turnout surges.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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