Jacob Fearnley holds a clear edge in this US Open qualifying opener on outdoor hard courts, reflected in trader consensus around 70-75% implied probability. The 25-year-old Briton ranks roughly 80 spots higher at No. 107 and posted a stronger 55% win rate over the past year, including solid hard-court results in Montreal and recent challenger events. He also leads the head-to-head 1-0 after a straight-sets victory on clay in 2025. Carballes Baena, now 33 and ranked No. 190, enters with a 40% win rate in his last 10 matches and limited recent success on hard or at this level. Surface, age, and current form all tilt toward the higher-ranked player, though qualifying matches remain inherently volatile.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJacob Fearnley – Roberto Carballes Baena
Moneyline
$129 Vol.
This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Roberto Carballes Baena.
This market will resolve to 'Roberto Carballes Baena' if Roberto Carballes Baena advances against Jacob Fearnley.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/currentResolver
0x65070BE91...Jacob Fearnley – Roberto Carballes Baena
Moneyline
$129 Vol.
This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Roberto Carballes Baena.
This market will resolve to 'Roberto Carballes Baena' if Roberto Carballes Baena advances against Jacob Fearnley.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/currentResolver
0x65070BE91...Jacob Fearnley holds a clear edge in this US Open qualifying opener on outdoor hard courts, reflected in trader consensus around 70-75% implied probability. The 25-year-old Briton ranks roughly 80 spots higher at No. 107 and posted a stronger 55% win rate over the past year, including solid hard-court results in Montreal and recent challenger events. He also leads the head-to-head 1-0 after a straight-sets victory on clay in 2025. Carballes Baena, now 33 and ranked No. 190, enters with a 40% win rate in his last 10 matches and limited recent success on hard or at this level. Surface, age, and current form all tilt toward the higher-ranked player, though qualifying matches remain inherently volatile.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBeware of external links.
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