**High trader confidence in no US territorial annexation during 2026 stems primarily from constitutional and procedural requirements.** Any formal acquisition of sovereignty over foreign territory would need congressional legislation or treaty ratification, Senate supermajority support in many cases, and often international negotiations or recognition—steps that face entrenched opposition from lawmakers prioritizing alliances, legal precedents, and fiscal priorities over expansionist rhetoric. Recent statements, including remarks on August 14 about potentially declaring the Strait of Hormuz US territory following developments in the Iran conflict, along with ongoing references to Greenland or Canada, have not produced legislative proposals, funding authorizations, or diplomatic breakthroughs capable of advancing to completion before year-end. Traders view these as consistent with historical patterns where presidential interest rarely overcomes institutional checks within a single calendar year. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid congressional action on a negotiated purchase or cession, or an unforeseen military outcome granting de facto control that Congress then formalizes, though both remain distant from current trajectories.