**Macron’s second and final term ends in May 2027, with the presidential election already set for April–May 2027, leaving limited political bandwidth for major new initiatives before year-end.** The National Assembly remains fragmented following the 2024 snap elections, reducing the scope for sweeping constitutional or legislative moves that typically prompt a referendum under Article 11. Recent attempts to advance reforms—such as the under-15 social media ban struck down by the Constitutional Council in August 2026—have prompted Macron to direct the government toward a revised legislative draft rather than a direct popular vote. Calls for a referendum on that issue by figures like Gabriel Attal have not shifted the Élysée’s approach. Earlier references to referendums on end-of-life care, pensions, or institutional changes have similarly resolved through parliamentary channels or been deferred, with no presidential decree published in the Journal officiel to trigger a nationwide vote. Municipal elections in March 2026 and the intensifying 2027 campaign cycle further prioritize stability over high-stakes direct consultations. In this environment, the absence of an announced timetable or acute institutional deadlock supports the strong trader consensus that no qualifying referendum will occur by December 31, 2026.