Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and follow-on variants like Claude Fable 5, have driven the 82% implied probability by topping key leaderboards on metrics such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench coding performance. These models currently outpace OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash or 3.1 Pro in overall intelligence, agentic workflows, and reliability benchmarks. With only weeks until the July 31 resolution, the compressed timeline limits rivals' ability to ship and validate superior systems, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated large language model capabilities. Regulatory scrutiny on frontier access adds minor uncertainty but has not displaced the performance lead.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAnthropic 98.4%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$7,410,331 Vol.
$7,410,331 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 98.4%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$7,410,331 Vol.
$7,410,331 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
Anthropic
$837,384 Vol.
98%
$609,902 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$899,648 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$531,703 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$635,337 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$454,604 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$341,311 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$809,826 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$205,517 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$276,601 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$366,079 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$661,274 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$196,149 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$290,041 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$294,998 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and follow-on variants like Claude Fable 5, have driven the 82% implied probability by topping key leaderboards on metrics such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench coding performance. These models currently outpace OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash or 3.1 Pro in overall intelligence, agentic workflows, and reliability benchmarks. With only weeks until the July 31 resolution, the compressed timeline limits rivals' ability to ship and validate superior systems, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated large language model capabilities. Regulatory scrutiny on frontier access adds minor uncertainty but has not displaced the performance lead.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 4, 2026, 1:50 PM ET
ভলিউম
$7,410,331শেষ তারিখ
Jul 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 4, 2026, 1:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and follow-on variants like Claude Fable 5, have driven the 82% implied probability by topping key leaderboards on metrics such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench coding performance. These models currently outpace OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash or 3.1 Pro in overall intelligence, agentic workflows, and reliability benchmarks. With only weeks until the July 31 resolution, the compressed timeline limits rivals' ability to ship and validate superior systems, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated large language model capabilities. Regulatory scrutiny on frontier access adds minor uncertainty but has not displaced the performance lead.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
ভলিউম
$7,410,331শেষ তারিখ
Jul 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 4, 2026, 1:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and follow-on variants like Claude Fable 5, have driven the 82% implied probability by topping key leaderboards on metrics such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench coding performance. These models currently outpace OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash or 3.1 Pro in overall intelligence, agentic workflows, and reliability benchmarks. With only weeks until the July 31 resolution, the compressed timeline limits rivals' ability to ship and validate superior systems, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated large language model capabilities. Regulatory scrutiny on frontier access adds minor uncertainty but has not displaced the performance lead.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা