Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered showers from a broad monsoon trough are suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling in Taipei, anchoring the August 26 overnight low near the late-summer climatological baseline of 25–27 °C. Official Central Weather Administration guidance and ensemble models show limited potential for stronger clearing that would allow sub-24 °C readings or for extreme moisture retention that would push above 28 °C. Historical analogs under similar conditions confirm this tight distribution, with traders assigning nearly equal weight to the 25–27 °C bins while discounting both colder and warmer extremes. Updated model runs and any shift in cloud or precipitation forecasts over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could reprice the market before resolution.