Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s official X account @khamenei_ir has operated at low volume since his February 2026 assassination, with staff continuing to post archival statements and regime messaging at an irregular pace averaging well below five posts per week in recent months. No major diplomatic, military, or domestic developments are scheduled for September 22–29 that would prompt elevated output. The account’s handlers have shown no pattern of ramping up activity around routine dates, supporting the market’s strong consensus on the lowest bracket. A sudden escalation in regional tensions, a significant anniversary tied to the leader’s legacy, or an internal decision to increase visibility could still push totals higher, though such shifts remain uncommon based on observed post-assassination behavior.