The closely matched Polymarket odds around 5–8 landfalls with >8 edging ahead reflect an unusually active 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season under El Niño conditions, which have produced warmer sea-surface temperatures and favored more intense, longer-lived storms with tracks steering toward southern and eastern China. Multiple systems including Maysak, Bavi, and Noul have already made landfall by late July, exceeding early-season averages, while official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center anticipated 7–9 total strikes—above the long-term mean of roughly 7–8. Remaining peak months through October and potential late-season activity introduce genuine uncertainty around whether totals stay near the middle range or push higher.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 52%
5 49%
6 48%
7 47%
নতুন
নতুন
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
39%
5
49%
6
48%
7
47%
8
47%
Greater than 8
52%
Greater than 8 52%
5 49%
6 48%
7 47%
নতুন
নতুন
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$0 Vol.
39%
5
$0 Vol.
49%
6
$0 Vol.
48%
7
$0 Vol.
47%
8
$0 Vol.
47%
Greater than 8
$0 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).The closely matched Polymarket odds around 5–8 landfalls with >8 edging ahead reflect an unusually active 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season under El Niño conditions, which have produced warmer sea-surface temperatures and favored more intense, longer-lived storms with tracks steering toward southern and eastern China. Multiple systems including Maysak, Bavi, and Noul have already made landfall by late July, exceeding early-season averages, while official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center anticipated 7–9 total strikes—above the long-term mean of roughly 7–8. Remaining peak months through October and potential late-season activity introduce genuine uncertainty around whether totals stay near the middle range or push higher.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).The closely matched Polymarket odds around 5–8 landfalls with >8 edging ahead reflect an unusually active 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season under El Niño conditions, which have produced warmer sea-surface temperatures and favored more intense, longer-lived storms with tracks steering toward southern and eastern China. Multiple systems including Maysak, Bavi, and Noul have already made landfall by late July, exceeding early-season averages, while official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center anticipated 7–9 total strikes—above the long-term mean of roughly 7–8. Remaining peak months through October and potential late-season activity introduce genuine uncertainty around whether totals stay near the middle range or push higher.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched Polymarket odds around 5–8 landfalls with >8 edging ahead reflect an unusually active 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season under El Niño conditions, which have produced warmer sea-surface temperatures and favored more intense, longer-lived storms with tracks steering toward southern and eastern China. Multiple systems including Maysak, Bavi, and Noul have already made landfall by late July, exceeding early-season averages, while official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center anticipated 7–9 total strikes—above the long-term mean of roughly 7–8. Remaining peak months through October and potential late-season activity introduce genuine uncertainty around whether totals stay near the middle range or push higher.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা