Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 presidential election occurs amid a fragile post-coup transition following the November 2025 vote, which was suspended by the military after Fernando Dias da Costa and incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló both claimed victory. The junta installed a transitional government under General Horta Inta-A Na Man, who is barred from running, and scheduled fresh polls under ECOWAS pressure for a return to constitutional order. A crowded field of more than a dozen candidates, including independents and party figures, combined with legal restrictions on opinion polls and lingering opposition detentions, has produced fragmented support. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether the transition will remain stable, whether major parties will unify behind frontrunners, and how regional mediation or domestic protests might reshape alignments before voting.