Incumbent Democrat Dave Min’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he captured 45.4% of the vote and advanced against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux, has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California’s 47th congressional district. The seat’s underlying partisan composition, combined with Min’s incumbency and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. No major shifts in polling, fundraising, or candidate viability have emerged since the primary to alter this positioning. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking personal or policy developments affecting Min, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural district factors make such outcomes unlikely.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডCA-47 House Election Winner
CA-47 House Election Winner
$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,261 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$10,876 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he captured 45.4% of the vote and advanced against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux, has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California’s 47th congressional district. The seat’s underlying partisan composition, combined with Min’s incumbency and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. No major shifts in polling, fundraising, or candidate viability have emerged since the primary to alter this positioning. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking personal or policy developments affecting Min, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural district factors make such outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
ভলিউম
$14,137শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he captured 45.4% of the vote and advanced against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux, has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California’s 47th congressional district. The seat’s underlying partisan composition, combined with Min’s incumbency and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. No major shifts in polling, fundraising, or candidate viability have emerged since the primary to alter this positioning. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking personal or policy developments affecting Min, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural district factors make such outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$14,137শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Dave Min’s strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he captured 45.4% of the vote and advanced against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux, has reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold in California’s 47th congressional district. The seat’s underlying partisan composition, combined with Min’s incumbency and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, underpins the 94.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. No major shifts in polling, fundraising, or candidate viability have emerged since the primary to alter this positioning. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking personal or policy developments affecting Min, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though structural district factors make such outcomes unlikely.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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