Islam Makhachev’s position as the heavy favorite stems from his recent move to welterweight, where he captured the title and successfully defended it against Ian Machado Garry via unanimous decision at UFC 330 in August 2026. The former lightweight champion has shown strong adaptation to 170 pounds, leveraging elite wrestling and control to maintain an undefeated streak across divisions while expressing commitment to staying at the higher weight. Traders see limited realistic threats in the short window to year-end from contenders such as Carlos Prates, Michael Morales, or Shavkat Rakhmonov, given Makhachev’s form, experience, and the division’s current structure. A late injury, significant upset loss, or unexpected title vacancy could shift outcomes, though such developments remain low-probability events based on current trajectories.