Recent Dota 2 developments keep the hero announcement market tightly bunched around 50 percent implied probability. Leaks dating back to late 2025 placed Arjun—an archer-style hero with chariot ties—in test files and the API, generating sustained community speculation ahead of TI 2026 in Shanghai. Valve has historically used the International for major reveals or event tie-ins, yet the latest patches (7.41e and summer scrub) delivered only balance tweaks without confirming a new hero. With qualifiers concluded and the main event two weeks away, traders weigh the chance of an Arjun debut, a different unrevealed hero, or no announcement at all. This uncertainty, driven by Valve’s pattern of last-minute decisions and the absence of official roster or patch confirmation, sustains the competitive spread across outcomes.