Viktor Orbán's April 2026 electoral defeat and transition to opposition leader have sharply reduced the near-term risk of arrest by year's end. Hungary's new Tisza government under Péter Magyar has launched parliamentary probes, office raids, and inquiries into alleged Fidesz-linked misuse of National Culture Fund grants and other public contracts, yet these actions have targeted former officials and party structures rather than producing charges or detention orders against Orbán himself. Ongoing anti-corruption reviews and asset-recovery efforts continue through summer 2026 without crossing into personal criminal proceedings that would trigger arrest. Traders assign the 90.5% "No" probability because structural barriers—including Orbán's parliamentary immunity claims, evidentiary thresholds, and institutional transition timelines—make detention by December 31 improbable absent sudden new developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
10% 概率
$34,923 交易量
$34,923 交易量
2026-12-31
是
10% 概率
$34,923 交易量
$34,923 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán's April 2026 electoral defeat and transition to opposition leader have sharply reduced the near-term risk of arrest by year's end. Hungary's new Tisza government under Péter Magyar has launched parliamentary probes, office raids, and inquiries into alleged Fidesz-linked misuse of National Culture Fund grants and other public contracts, yet these actions have targeted former officials and party structures rather than producing charges or detention orders against Orbán himself. Ongoing anti-corruption reviews and asset-recovery efforts continue through summer 2026 without crossing into personal criminal proceedings that would trigger arrest. Traders assign the 90.5% "No" probability because structural barriers—including Orbán's parliamentary immunity claims, evidentiary thresholds, and institutional transition timelines—make detention by December 31 improbable absent sudden new developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
交易量
$34,923结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán's April 2026 electoral defeat and transition to opposition leader have sharply reduced the near-term risk of arrest by year's end. Hungary's new Tisza government under Péter Magyar has launched parliamentary probes, office raids, and inquiries into alleged Fidesz-linked misuse of National Culture Fund grants and other public contracts, yet these actions have targeted former officials and party structures rather than producing charges or detention orders against Orbán himself. Ongoing anti-corruption reviews and asset-recovery efforts continue through summer 2026 without crossing into personal criminal proceedings that would trigger arrest. Traders assign the 90.5% "No" probability because structural barriers—including Orbán's parliamentary immunity claims, evidentiary thresholds, and institutional transition timelines—make detention by December 31 improbable absent sudden new developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$34,923结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETViktor Orbán's April 2026 electoral defeat and transition to opposition leader have sharply reduced the near-term risk of arrest by year's end. Hungary's new Tisza government under Péter Magyar has launched parliamentary probes, office raids, and inquiries into alleged Fidesz-linked misuse of National Culture Fund grants and other public contracts, yet these actions have targeted former officials and party structures rather than producing charges or detention orders against Orbán himself. Ongoing anti-corruption reviews and asset-recovery efforts continue through summer 2026 without crossing into personal criminal proceedings that would trigger arrest. Traders assign the 90.5% "No" probability because structural barriers—including Orbán's parliamentary immunity claims, evidentiary thresholds, and institutional transition timelines—make detention by December 31 improbable absent sudden new developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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