**Federal regulatory changes to the hemp definition under the 2018 Farm Bill are the central driver.** A provision enacted in late 2025 caps total THC in finished hemp products at 0.4 mg per container, which would render most 5 mg hemp-derived THC seltzers non-compliant and subject them to marijuana controls. Congress has repeatedly delayed enforcement through continuing resolutions, most recently extending the effective date to December 11, 2026. Bipartisan legislation seeks either further delays, a new three-tier alcohol-style regulatory system with serving-size limits, or revised hemp standards that could preserve low-dose beverages. Industry groups are actively lobbying while some state attorneys general and alcohol interests support the tighter federal cap. State-level rules on hemp drinks vary widely and remain secondary to the federal timeline. Trader focus centers on whether lawmakers will enact a permanent framework before the December deadline or allow the restriction to take hold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-11-13
2026年11月13日
92%
2027年3月13日
49%
$4,138 交易量
2026年11月13日
$3,651 交易量
92%
2027年3月13日
$487 交易量
49%
On November 12, 2025, the United States enacted a law that includes a provision, referred to herein as Section 781, defining hemp to exclude products containing a tetrahydrocannabinols (“THC”) concentration (including tetrahydrocannabinolic acid) of over 0.3%, or finished consumer products containing over 0.4mg of THC. This law would have the effect of creating federal prohibitions on the sale of such products and is scheduled to go into effect on November 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court.
State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.**Federal regulatory changes to the hemp definition under the 2018 Farm Bill are the central driver.** A provision enacted in late 2025 caps total THC in finished hemp products at 0.4 mg per container, which would render most 5 mg hemp-derived THC seltzers non-compliant and subject them to marijuana controls. Congress has repeatedly delayed enforcement through continuing resolutions, most recently extending the effective date to December 11, 2026.
Bipartisan legislation seeks either further delays, a new three-tier alcohol-style regulatory system with serving-size limits, or revised hemp standards that could preserve low-dose beverages. Industry groups are actively lobbying while some state attorneys general and alcohol interests support the tighter federal cap. State-level rules on hemp drinks vary widely and remain secondary to the federal timeline. Trader focus centers on whether lawmakers will enact a permanent framework before the December deadline or allow the restriction to take hold.
On November 12, 2025, the United States enacted a law that includes a provision, referred to herein as Section 781, defining hemp to exclude products containing a tetrahydrocannabinols (“THC”) concentration (including tetrahydrocannabinolic acid) of over 0.3%, or finished consumer products containing over 0.4mg of THC. This law would have the effect of creating federal prohibitions on the sale of such products and is scheduled to go into effect on November 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court.
State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court.
State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 22, 2026, 11:58 AM ET
交易量
$4,138结束日期
2027-03-14市场开放时间
Jul 22, 2026, 11:58 AM ETOn November 12, 2025, the United States enacted a law that includes a provision, referred to herein as Section 781, defining hemp to exclude products containing a tetrahydrocannabinols (“THC”) concentration (including tetrahydrocannabinolic acid) of over 0.3%, or finished consumer products containing over 0.4mg of THC. This law would have the effect of creating federal prohibitions on the sale of such products and is scheduled to go into effect on November 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court.
State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.**Federal regulatory changes to the hemp definition under the 2018 Farm Bill are the central driver.** A provision enacted in late 2025 caps total THC in finished hemp products at 0.4 mg per container, which would render most 5 mg hemp-derived THC seltzers non-compliant and subject them to marijuana controls. Congress has repeatedly delayed enforcement through continuing resolutions, most recently extending the effective date to December 11, 2026.
Bipartisan legislation seeks either further delays, a new three-tier alcohol-style regulatory system with serving-size limits, or revised hemp standards that could preserve low-dose beverages. Industry groups are actively lobbying while some state attorneys general and alcohol interests support the tighter federal cap. State-level rules on hemp drinks vary widely and remain secondary to the federal timeline. Trader focus centers on whether lawmakers will enact a permanent framework before the December deadline or allow the restriction to take hold.
On November 12, 2025, the United States enacted a law that includes a provision, referred to herein as Section 781, defining hemp to exclude products containing a tetrahydrocannabinols (“THC”) concentration (including tetrahydrocannabinolic acid) of over 0.3%, or finished consumer products containing over 0.4mg of THC. This law would have the effect of creating federal prohibitions on the sale of such products and is scheduled to go into effect on November 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court.
State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the specified date at 11:59PM ET, a hemp-derived beverage containing 5mg or more of total THC per container qualifies as lawful hemp under federal law (and is therefore not a schedule 1 controlled substance). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying means by which this market may resolve to Yes include, but are not limited to: the repeal of Section 781, the delay of the effective date of Section 781 past the specified date, the enactment of a law that overrides Section 781, or the nationwide enjoinment of Section 781 by a federal court.
State laws or authorizations, federal enforcement discretion (such as non-prosecution policies or guidance), court orders limited to specific parties, products, states, or districts, bills that have not been enacted, and FDA food-additive or premarket status will not alone be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$4,138结束日期
2027-03-14市场开放时间
Jul 22, 2026, 11:58 AM ET**Federal regulatory changes to the hemp definition under the 2018 Farm Bill are the central driver.** A provision enacted in late 2025 caps total THC in finished hemp products at 0.4 mg per container, which would render most 5 mg hemp-derived THC seltzers non-compliant and subject them to marijuana controls. Congress has repeatedly delayed enforcement through continuing resolutions, most recently extending the effective date to December 11, 2026. Bipartisan legislation seeks either further delays, a new three-tier alcohol-style regulatory system with serving-size limits, or revised hemp standards that could preserve low-dose beverages. Industry groups are actively lobbying while some state attorneys general and alcohol interests support the tighter federal cap. State-level rules on hemp drinks vary widely and remain secondary to the federal timeline. Trader focus centers on whether lawmakers will enact a permanent framework before the December deadline or allow the restriction to take hold.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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