Recent parliamentary by-elections, including the June 2026 Makerfield contest triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons’ resignation to enable Andy Burnham’s return to the Commons, have highlighted how individual vacancies arise from leadership ambitions or personal circumstances. The next confirmed contest is the Clacton by-election scheduled for 13 August 2026, following Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s resignation amid a standards investigation, with the writ already moved. Trader focus centres on which party’s MPs may next create vacancies through health issues, other elected roles, or procedural moves, alongside patterns in seat-holding parties and any upcoming parliamentary sessions that could prompt further resignations before the 2029 general election. Local council by-elections continue regularly but do not directly influence the parliamentary market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-09-30
9月30日
12%
12月31日
42%
$2,111 交易量
9月30日
$933 交易量
12%
12月31日
$1,178 交易量
42%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent parliamentary by-elections, including the June 2026 Makerfield contest triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons’ resignation to enable Andy Burnham’s return to the Commons, have highlighted how individual vacancies arise from leadership ambitions or personal circumstances. The next confirmed contest is the Clacton by-election scheduled for 13 August 2026, following Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s resignation amid a standards investigation, with the writ already moved. Trader focus centres on which party’s MPs may next create vacancies through health issues, other elected roles, or procedural moves, alongside patterns in seat-holding parties and any upcoming parliamentary sessions that could prompt further resignations before the 2029 general election. Local council by-elections continue regularly but do not directly influence the parliamentary market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
交易量
$2,111结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent parliamentary by-elections, including the June 2026 Makerfield contest triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons’ resignation to enable Andy Burnham’s return to the Commons, have highlighted how individual vacancies arise from leadership ambitions or personal circumstances. The next confirmed contest is the Clacton by-election scheduled for 13 August 2026, following Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s resignation amid a standards investigation, with the writ already moved. Trader focus centres on which party’s MPs may next create vacancies through health issues, other elected roles, or procedural moves, alongside patterns in seat-holding parties and any upcoming parliamentary sessions that could prompt further resignations before the 2029 general election. Local council by-elections continue regularly but do not directly influence the parliamentary market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$2,111结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent parliamentary by-elections, including the June 2026 Makerfield contest triggered by Labour MP Josh Simons’ resignation to enable Andy Burnham’s return to the Commons, have highlighted how individual vacancies arise from leadership ambitions or personal circumstances. The next confirmed contest is the Clacton by-election scheduled for 13 August 2026, following Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s resignation amid a standards investigation, with the writ already moved. Trader focus centres on which party’s MPs may next create vacancies through health issues, other elected roles, or procedural moves, alongside patterns in seat-holding parties and any upcoming parliamentary sessions that could prompt further resignations before the 2029 general election. Local council by-elections continue regularly but do not directly influence the parliamentary market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题