Mojtaba Khamenei holds the position of Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts formalizing his selection in March amid an interim council and wartime disruptions. Recent trader sentiment reflects low near-term change probabilities, as President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly affirmed Khamenei’s health after an August 2026 meeting, while the IRGC and senior officials have consolidated influence through new military appointments and a collective security apparatus. Economic pressures, including sharp food price rises, and ongoing U.S. ceasefire negotiations introduce uncertainty, yet institutional continuity and the absence of major internal challenges or scheduled votes keep implied odds of leadership transition modest through year-end and into 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$24,057,007 交易量
2026-12-31
8月31日
<1%
9月30日
3%
10月31日
7%
11月30日
10%
12月31日
16%
2027年6月30日
25%
$24,057,007 交易量
8月31日
$1,461,653 交易量
<1%
9月30日
$490,857 交易量
3%
10月31日
$26,233 交易量
7%
11月30日
$18,839 交易量
10%
12月31日
$4,120,003 交易量
16%
2027年6月30日
$251,699 交易量
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei holds the position of Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts formalizing his selection in March amid an interim council and wartime disruptions. Recent trader sentiment reflects low near-term change probabilities, as President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly affirmed Khamenei’s health after an August 2026 meeting, while the IRGC and senior officials have consolidated influence through new military appointments and a collective security apparatus. Economic pressures, including sharp food price rises, and ongoing U.S. ceasefire negotiations introduce uncertainty, yet institutional continuity and the absence of major internal challenges or scheduled votes keep implied odds of leadership transition modest through year-end and into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
交易量
$24,057,007结束日期
2027-07-01市场开放时间
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei holds the position of Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts formalizing his selection in March amid an interim council and wartime disruptions. Recent trader sentiment reflects low near-term change probabilities, as President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly affirmed Khamenei’s health after an August 2026 meeting, while the IRGC and senior officials have consolidated influence through new military appointments and a collective security apparatus. Economic pressures, including sharp food price rises, and ongoing U.S. ceasefire negotiations introduce uncertainty, yet institutional continuity and the absence of major internal challenges or scheduled votes keep implied odds of leadership transition modest through year-end and into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$24,057,007结束日期
2027-07-01市场开放时间
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei holds the position of Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts formalizing his selection in March amid an interim council and wartime disruptions. Recent trader sentiment reflects low near-term change probabilities, as President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly affirmed Khamenei’s health after an August 2026 meeting, while the IRGC and senior officials have consolidated influence through new military appointments and a collective security apparatus. Economic pressures, including sharp food price rises, and ongoing U.S. ceasefire negotiations introduce uncertainty, yet institutional continuity and the absence of major internal challenges or scheduled votes keep implied odds of leadership transition modest through year-end and into 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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