China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent anchors trader expectations, with consensus forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and Reuters polls clustering at 4.4–4.6 percent. First-quarter expansion reached 5.0 percent on robust exports and high-tech manufacturing, but second-quarter growth slowed to 4.3 percent amid weak consumption, property-sector adjustment, and subdued domestic investment. Resilient external demand—particularly AI-related goods, electric vehicles, and mechanical products—has offset these pressures, while Beijing’s calibrated fiscal support, including a roughly 4 percent of GDP deficit and targeted bond issuance, sustains momentum within the target band. Recent data show continued export strength through August, though domestic demand remains soft, reinforcing the narrow 4.0–5.0 percent range as the dominant outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.0–5.0% 90%
5.0–6.0% 6.1%
9.0%及以上 1.4%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
$897,822 交易量
$897,822 交易量
2027-01-30
低于1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
90%
5.0–6.0%
6%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%及以上
1%
4.0–5.0% 90%
5.0–6.0% 6.1%
9.0%及以上 1.4%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
$897,822 交易量
$897,822 交易量
2027-01-30
低于1.0%
$67,888 交易量
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$75,259 交易量
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$45,793 交易量
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$81,404 交易量
1%
4.0–5.0%
$222,330 交易量
90%
5.0–6.0%
$80,873 交易量
6%
6.0-7.0%
$87,941 交易量
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$65,353 交易量
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$54,234 交易量
1%
9.0%及以上
$116,748 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent anchors trader expectations, with consensus forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and Reuters polls clustering at 4.4–4.6 percent. First-quarter expansion reached 5.0 percent on robust exports and high-tech manufacturing, but second-quarter growth slowed to 4.3 percent amid weak consumption, property-sector adjustment, and subdued domestic investment. Resilient external demand—particularly AI-related goods, electric vehicles, and mechanical products—has offset these pressures, while Beijing’s calibrated fiscal support, including a roughly 4 percent of GDP deficit and targeted bond issuance, sustains momentum within the target band. Recent data show continued export strength through August, though domestic demand remains soft, reinforcing the narrow 4.0–5.0 percent range as the dominant outcome.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$897,822结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETThis market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent anchors trader expectations, with consensus forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and Reuters polls clustering at 4.4–4.6 percent. First-quarter expansion reached 5.0 percent on robust exports and high-tech manufacturing, but second-quarter growth slowed to 4.3 percent amid weak consumption, property-sector adjustment, and subdued domestic investment. Resilient external demand—particularly AI-related goods, electric vehicles, and mechanical products—has offset these pressures, while Beijing’s calibrated fiscal support, including a roughly 4 percent of GDP deficit and targeted bond issuance, sustains momentum within the target band. Recent data show continued export strength through August, though domestic demand remains soft, reinforcing the narrow 4.0–5.0 percent range as the dominant outcome.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$897,822结束日期
2027-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETChina’s official 2026 growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent anchors trader expectations, with consensus forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and Reuters polls clustering at 4.4–4.6 percent. First-quarter expansion reached 5.0 percent on robust exports and high-tech manufacturing, but second-quarter growth slowed to 4.3 percent amid weak consumption, property-sector adjustment, and subdued domestic investment. Resilient external demand—particularly AI-related goods, electric vehicles, and mechanical products—has offset these pressures, while Beijing’s calibrated fiscal support, including a roughly 4 percent of GDP deficit and targeted bond issuance, sustains momentum within the target band. Recent data show continued export strength through August, though domestic demand remains soft, reinforcing the narrow 4.0–5.0 percent range as the dominant outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题