Jannik Sinner leads the 2026 US Open market as the ATP world No. 1 with a dominant 44-3 record this season, multiple Masters 1000 titles, and strong hard-court results that align with Flushing Meadows conditions. Traders price his edge highest despite a recent right-knee withdrawal from Cincinnati that raises minor fitness questions heading into the final major. Alexander Zverev sits second on the back of consistent results, prior major final appearances, and a strong clay-court peak earlier in the year. Carlos Alcaraz holds the next share but faces reduced probability from a right-wrist injury that has limited match play since April, creating uncertainty around his defending-champion form and hard-court preparation. Novak Djokovic draws support from veteran experience and top-five ranking stability, while emerging players like Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz receive smaller allocations amid questions over depth against the established top tier. The wisdom of crowds reflected in these implied probabilities incorporates recent ranking points, injury timelines, and surface-specific trends.