**Sneako, a US-born content creator, faces no credible risk of deportation from the United States in 2026, which underpins the 96% market-implied probability for “No.”** As a native citizen, he is constitutionally protected from removal proceedings that apply only to non-citizens. Recent controversy stems from his May 2026 Australian visa cancellation and lifetime entry ban over inflammatory content, but that foreign action has no bearing on his domestic status. Online calls for his deportation, amplified by memes and public backlash to his statements, remain rhetorical rather than legal. No official US immigration actions, indictments, or citizenship challenges have emerged. The slim chance of an upset would require unprecedented constitutional changes or fabricated evidence of citizenship fraud—scenarios with zero precedent or current momentum. Traders correctly price near-certainty based on these immutable legal realities.