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icon for 喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？

喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？

icon for 喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？

喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？

是

7% 機率
Polymarket

$15,530 交易量

是

7% 機率
Polymarket

$15,530 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.George R.R. Martin's prolonged silence on *The Winds of Winter* progress, coupled with his candid August 2026 blog post detailing grief, depression, and falling behind on projects amid turning 77, has solidified trader conviction around a "No" outcome for any 2026 announcement. The novel has now surpassed the combined writing span of the first five *A Song of Ice and Fire* books without a release date or manuscript confirmation, while Martin prioritizes side efforts like new Dunk & Egg novellas, *Fire & Blood* sequels, and stage adaptations. Publisher debunkings of 2026 rumors and thin blog updates reinforce the market-implied odds. A sudden completion or Worldcon-style reveal remains possible but would require dramatic momentum shifts not evident in recent verified statements.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$15,530
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.George R.R. Martin's prolonged silence on *The Winds of Winter* progress, coupled with his candid August 2026 blog post detailing grief, depression, and falling behind on projects amid turning 77, has solidified trader conviction around a "No" outcome for any 2026 announcement. The novel has now surpassed the combined writing span of the first five *A Song of Ice and Fire* books without a release date or manuscript confirmation, while Martin prioritizes side efforts like new Dunk & Egg novellas, *Fire & Blood* sequels, and stage adaptations. Publisher debunkings of 2026 rumors and thin blog updates reinforce the market-implied odds. A sudden completion or Worldcon-style reveal remains possible but would require dramatic momentum shifts not evident in recent verified statements.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$15,530
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jan 15, 2026, 7:32 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "喬治·R·R·馬丁會在2026年宣布《凜冬的寒風》嗎？" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？" has generated $15.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？" is "喬治·R·R·馬丁會在2026年宣布《凜冬的寒風》嗎？" at just 7%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "喬治· R · R ·馬丁會在2026年宣佈《冬之風》嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.