James Harden's overwhelming 97.4% implied probability for the Cleveland Cavaliers stems from his June 2026 decision to decline a $42.3 million player option, followed by ongoing negotiations for a new multi-year deal with the team that acquired him via midseason trade. Reports confirm Harden's stated preference to remain in Cleveland, where he contributed to an Eastern Conference finals appearance, while delaying his signature to preserve roster flexibility for additions like Jonathan Kuminga or Peyton Watson. Trader consensus reflects this alignment, reinforced by the guard's public comments and attendance at teammate events signaling continuity. Scenarios that could shift the market include an unforeseen pivot to another contender seeking veteran playmaking or a breakdown in contract talks over salary structure, though current reporting shows no active pursuit elsewhere.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Cleveland Cavaliers 97.5%
Golden State Warriors 2.9%
Phoenix Suns <1%
Atlanta Hawks <1%
$1,295,943 交易量
$1,295,943 交易量
Cleveland Cavaliers
98%
Golden State Warriors
3%
Phoenix Suns
1%
Atlanta Hawks
1%
Memphis Grizzlies
1%
Toronto Raptors
1%
San Antonio Spurs
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Boston Celtics
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Miami Heat
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Detroit Pistons
<1%
Houston Rockets
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Los Angeles Lakers
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
Cleveland Cavaliers 97.5%
Golden State Warriors 2.9%
Phoenix Suns <1%
Atlanta Hawks <1%
$1,295,943 交易量
$1,295,943 交易量
Cleveland Cavaliers
98%
Golden State Warriors
3%
Phoenix Suns
1%
Atlanta Hawks
1%
Memphis Grizzlies
1%
Toronto Raptors
1%
San Antonio Spurs
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Boston Celtics
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Miami Heat
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Detroit Pistons
<1%
Houston Rockets
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Los Angeles Lakers
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
If James Harden does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
市場開放時間： Jun 22, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If James Harden does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...James Harden's overwhelming 97.4% implied probability for the Cleveland Cavaliers stems from his June 2026 decision to decline a $42.3 million player option, followed by ongoing negotiations for a new multi-year deal with the team that acquired him via midseason trade. Reports confirm Harden's stated preference to remain in Cleveland, where he contributed to an Eastern Conference finals appearance, while delaying his signature to preserve roster flexibility for additions like Jonathan Kuminga or Peyton Watson. Trader consensus reflects this alignment, reinforced by the guard's public comments and attendance at teammate events signaling continuity. Scenarios that could shift the market include an unforeseen pivot to another contender seeking veteran playmaking or a breakdown in contract talks over salary structure, though current reporting shows no active pursuit elsewhere.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions