Recent monthly Japan core CPI readings (ex fresh food) have held at 1.6–1.8% YoY through mid-2026 amid scaled-back energy subsidies, favorable base effects, and moderating food price pressures, supporting the slight edge in market-implied odds for a full-year 2026 print at or below 1.9%. The Bank of Japan’s July 2026 Outlook Report revised its fiscal-2026 core CPI median forecast down to 2.5% from 2.8% in April, citing slower pass-through from crude oil spikes tied to Middle East developments and subdued wage-price dynamics. At the same time, underlying gauges excluding energy have edged toward 2.0%, while BoJ rate-hike expectations and a weaker yen introduce upside risks that keep the 2.0–2.4% bracket nearly as probable. Traders are weighting near-term data releases and the September policy meeting as key swing factors ahead of the annual Statistics Bureau report.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於≤1.9％ 51.2%
2.0-2.4% 44%
2.5-2.9% 3.1%
3.0-3.4% 1.0%
$40,699 交易量
$40,699 交易量
2027-01-22
≤1.9％
51%
2.0-2.4%
44%
2.5-2.9%
3%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1.9％ 51.2%
2.0-2.4% 44%
2.5-2.9% 3.1%
3.0-3.4% 1.0%
$40,699 交易量
$40,699 交易量
2027-01-22
≤1.9％
$19,302 交易量
51%
2.0-2.4%
$11,384 交易量
44%
2.5-2.9%
$5,548 交易量
3%
3.0-3.4%
$1,661 交易量
1%
3.5-3.9%
$1,253 交易量
<1%
4.0%+
$1,551 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent monthly Japan core CPI readings (ex fresh food) have held at 1.6–1.8% YoY through mid-2026 amid scaled-back energy subsidies, favorable base effects, and moderating food price pressures, supporting the slight edge in market-implied odds for a full-year 2026 print at or below 1.9%. The Bank of Japan’s July 2026 Outlook Report revised its fiscal-2026 core CPI median forecast down to 2.5% from 2.8% in April, citing slower pass-through from crude oil spikes tied to Middle East developments and subdued wage-price dynamics. At the same time, underlying gauges excluding energy have edged toward 2.0%, while BoJ rate-hike expectations and a weaker yen introduce upside risks that keep the 2.0–2.4% bracket nearly as probable. Traders are weighting near-term data releases and the September policy meeting as key swing factors ahead of the annual Statistics Bureau report.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
市場開放時間： Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
交易量
$40,699結束日期
2027-01-22市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETThis market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent monthly Japan core CPI readings (ex fresh food) have held at 1.6–1.8% YoY through mid-2026 amid scaled-back energy subsidies, favorable base effects, and moderating food price pressures, supporting the slight edge in market-implied odds for a full-year 2026 print at or below 1.9%. The Bank of Japan’s July 2026 Outlook Report revised its fiscal-2026 core CPI median forecast down to 2.5% from 2.8% in April, citing slower pass-through from crude oil spikes tied to Middle East developments and subdued wage-price dynamics. At the same time, underlying gauges excluding energy have edged toward 2.0%, while BoJ rate-hike expectations and a weaker yen introduce upside risks that keep the 2.0–2.4% bracket nearly as probable. Traders are weighting near-term data releases and the September policy meeting as key swing factors ahead of the annual Statistics Bureau report.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
交易量
$40,699結束日期
2027-01-22市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRecent monthly Japan core CPI readings (ex fresh food) have held at 1.6–1.8% YoY through mid-2026 amid scaled-back energy subsidies, favorable base effects, and moderating food price pressures, supporting the slight edge in market-implied odds for a full-year 2026 print at or below 1.9%. The Bank of Japan’s July 2026 Outlook Report revised its fiscal-2026 core CPI median forecast down to 2.5% from 2.8% in April, citing slower pass-through from crude oil spikes tied to Middle East developments and subdued wage-price dynamics. At the same time, underlying gauges excluding energy have edged toward 2.0%, while BoJ rate-hike expectations and a weaker yen introduce upside risks that keep the 2.0–2.4% bracket nearly as probable. Traders are weighting near-term data releases and the September policy meeting as key swing factors ahead of the annual Statistics Bureau report.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions