Claudia Sheinbaum remains firmly in office as Mexico's president through mid-2026, backed by Morena's congressional majorities and approval ratings near 70 percent in recent polls. Trader odds on her departure by year-end sit below 5 percent largely because Mexico's constitution sets a fixed six-year term ending in 2030, with no viable impeachment or recall mechanisms active and no credible opposition coalition forming. Key stabilizers include her administration's security operations against cartels, ongoing USMCA talks, and steady handling of bilateral issues with the United States. Potential market-moving events remain limited to scheduled legislative sessions, fiscal reporting, or unexpected health or corruption revelations, none of which have yet altered her institutional position.