Incumbent Lauren Boebert secured the Republican nomination unopposed in the June 30 primary for Colorado’s 4th Congressional District and remains on the November 3 general election ballot against Democrat Eileen Laubacher in a seat rated solidly Republican by multiple forecasters. Filing deadlines passed months earlier, and Boebert has shown no public signals of withdrawal despite a recent ethics complaint alleging improper relationships with staffers, which her office has dismissed as baseless and politically motivated. Traders assign a 95.2% probability she stays in the race because the short timeline to Election Day, her established position in a favorable district, and absence of party pressure make a late exit improbable. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid escalation of the ethics matter producing formal investigation or donor flight, a serious health event, or an unexpected personal decision, though none of these has materialized.