The high evidentiary threshold for a genocide finding under the Genocide Convention—requiring proof of specific intent to destroy a protected group—remains the central factor supporting the 82% implied probability for no conviction by December 2027. ICJ proceedings in South Africa v. Israel have advanced through provisional measures but await full merits hearings and judgments that routinely extend beyond several years, while ICC arrest warrant applications target war crimes and crimes against humanity charges rather than genocide. Key diplomatic alignments, including U.S. positions on jurisdiction and enforcement, add procedural complexity without altering core legal timelines. No final rulings establishing liability have emerged to date, and scheduled milestones within the resolution window offer limited scope for rapid resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$91,457 KL.
$91,457 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
$91,457 KL.
$91,457 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The high evidentiary threshold for a genocide finding under the Genocide Convention—requiring proof of specific intent to destroy a protected group—remains the central factor supporting the 82% implied probability for no conviction by December 2027. ICJ proceedings in South Africa v. Israel have advanced through provisional measures but await full merits hearings and judgments that routinely extend beyond several years, while ICC arrest warrant applications target war crimes and crimes against humanity charges rather than genocide. Key diplomatic alignments, including U.S. positions on jurisdiction and enforcement, add procedural complexity without altering core legal timelines. No final rulings establishing liability have emerged to date, and scheduled milestones within the resolution window offer limited scope for rapid resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Khối lượng
$91,457Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The high evidentiary threshold for a genocide finding under the Genocide Convention—requiring proof of specific intent to destroy a protected group—remains the central factor supporting the 82% implied probability for no conviction by December 2027. ICJ proceedings in South Africa v. Israel have advanced through provisional measures but await full merits hearings and judgments that routinely extend beyond several years, while ICC arrest warrant applications target war crimes and crimes against humanity charges rather than genocide. Key diplomatic alignments, including U.S. positions on jurisdiction and enforcement, add procedural complexity without altering core legal timelines. No final rulings establishing liability have emerged to date, and scheduled milestones within the resolution window offer limited scope for rapid resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$91,457Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high evidentiary threshold for a genocide finding under the Genocide Convention—requiring proof of specific intent to destroy a protected group—remains the central factor supporting the 82% implied probability for no conviction by December 2027. ICJ proceedings in South Africa v. Israel have advanced through provisional measures but await full merits hearings and judgments that routinely extend beyond several years, while ICC arrest warrant applications target war crimes and crimes against humanity charges rather than genocide. Key diplomatic alignments, including U.S. positions on jurisdiction and enforcement, add procedural complexity without altering core legal timelines. No final rulings establishing liability have emerged to date, and scheduled milestones within the resolution window offer limited scope for rapid resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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