Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active bilateral negotiations or diplomatic signals pointing to an imminent normalization agreement. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia remain stalled over linkage to Palestinian issues, despite recent U.S. statements conditioning nuclear cooperation on accession. Other regional actors have shown no movement in the past month that could produce a completed accord within the narrow 30-day window. Diplomatic normalization processes typically require extended consultations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that exceed this timeframe. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain narrow, limited to an unforeseen breakthrough announcement or rapid multilateral push tied to concurrent regional diplomacy.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active bilateral negotiations or diplomatic signals pointing to an imminent normalization agreement. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia remain stalled over linkage to Palestinian issues, despite recent U.S. statements conditioning nuclear cooperation on accession. Other regional actors have shown no movement in the past month that could produce a completed accord within the narrow 30-day window. Diplomatic normalization processes typically require extended consultations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that exceed this timeframe. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain narrow, limited to an unforeseen breakthrough announcement or rapid multilateral push tied to concurrent regional diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Khối lượng
$586Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active bilateral negotiations or diplomatic signals pointing to an imminent normalization agreement. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia remain stalled over linkage to Palestinian issues, despite recent U.S. statements conditioning nuclear cooperation on accession. Other regional actors have shown no movement in the past month that could produce a completed accord within the narrow 30-day window. Diplomatic normalization processes typically require extended consultations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that exceed this timeframe. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain narrow, limited to an unforeseen breakthrough announcement or rapid multilateral push tied to concurrent regional diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$586Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability to no new country joining the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of active bilateral negotiations or diplomatic signals pointing to an imminent normalization agreement. Potential candidates such as Saudi Arabia remain stalled over linkage to Palestinian issues, despite recent U.S. statements conditioning nuclear cooperation on accession. Other regional actors have shown no movement in the past month that could produce a completed accord within the narrow 30-day window. Diplomatic normalization processes typically require extended consultations, public announcements, and formal ceremonies that exceed this timeframe. Late developments capable of altering the outcome remain narrow, limited to an unforeseen breakthrough announcement or rapid multilateral push tied to concurrent regional diplomacy.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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