Jahmyr Gibbs leads the 2026-27 rushing touchdowns market at 15.5% implied probability, narrowly ahead of Derrick Henry at 13.5% and Jonathan Taylor at 12%, with the field remaining tightly bunched due to multiple high-volume backs in strong offensive environments. Gibbs benefits from an expanded bell-cow role in Detroit after David Montgomery’s departure, projecting for elite red-zone work in a high-scoring Lions attack. Henry continues delivering consistent goal-line volume for Baltimore despite his age, while Taylor leverages his proven workhorse status and recent league-leading form with the Colts. Other contenders such as James Cook, Kyren Williams, and Bijan Robinson trail but stay relevant through favorable matchups and committee shifts, keeping the outcome fluid as Week 1 approaches.