Trader consensus around 4–5.5 million total ballots in Pennsylvania’s November gubernatorial contest stems from the lopsided matchup between incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity. Polling averages show Shapiro ahead by roughly 15–20 points, a margin that historically dampens turnout in off-year races. Primary participation already signaled uneven enthusiasm, with Democrats casting about 1.1 million votes versus roughly 640,000 for Republicans. Mobilization efforts in Philadelphia suburbs, Pittsburgh metro areas, and central Pennsylvania rural counties, combined with standard registration levels and early-voting patterns, keep the most likely ranges tightly clustered. Any surge in independent or cross-party participation or shifts in campaign intensity could push totals higher or lower within the narrow band.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPennsylvania Governor Election: Turnout
Pennsylvania Governor Election: Turnout
4.5M-5M 19%
6.5M+ 13%
6M-6.5M 13%
5.5M-6M 4.6%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
<4M
2%
4M-4.5M
31%
4.5M-5M
19%
5M-5.5M
29%
5.5M-6M
5%
6M-6.5M
13%
6.5M+
13%
4.5M-5M 19%
6.5M+ 13%
6M-6.5M 13%
5.5M-6M 4.6%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
<4M
$88 KL.
2%
4M-4.5M
$208 KL.
31%
4.5M-5M
$148 KL.
19%
5M-5.5M
$121 KL.
29%
5.5M-6M
$63 KL.
5%
6M-6.5M
$84 KL.
13%
6.5M+
$129 KL.
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around 4–5.5 million total ballots in Pennsylvania’s November gubernatorial contest stems from the lopsided matchup between incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity. Polling averages show Shapiro ahead by roughly 15–20 points, a margin that historically dampens turnout in off-year races. Primary participation already signaled uneven enthusiasm, with Democrats casting about 1.1 million votes versus roughly 640,000 for Republicans. Mobilization efforts in Philadelphia suburbs, Pittsburgh metro areas, and central Pennsylvania rural counties, combined with standard registration levels and early-voting patterns, keep the most likely ranges tightly clustered. Any surge in independent or cross-party participation or shifts in campaign intensity could push totals higher or lower within the narrow band.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Khối lượng
$841Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around 4–5.5 million total ballots in Pennsylvania’s November gubernatorial contest stems from the lopsided matchup between incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity. Polling averages show Shapiro ahead by roughly 15–20 points, a margin that historically dampens turnout in off-year races. Primary participation already signaled uneven enthusiasm, with Democrats casting about 1.1 million votes versus roughly 640,000 for Republicans. Mobilization efforts in Philadelphia suburbs, Pittsburgh metro areas, and central Pennsylvania rural counties, combined with standard registration levels and early-voting patterns, keep the most likely ranges tightly clustered. Any surge in independent or cross-party participation or shifts in campaign intensity could push totals higher or lower within the narrow band.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$841Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 4–5.5 million total ballots in Pennsylvania’s November gubernatorial contest stems from the lopsided matchup between incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity. Polling averages show Shapiro ahead by roughly 15–20 points, a margin that historically dampens turnout in off-year races. Primary participation already signaled uneven enthusiasm, with Democrats casting about 1.1 million votes versus roughly 640,000 for Republicans. Mobilization efforts in Philadelphia suburbs, Pittsburgh metro areas, and central Pennsylvania rural counties, combined with standard registration levels and early-voting patterns, keep the most likely ranges tightly clustered. Any surge in independent or cross-party participation or shifts in campaign intensity could push totals higher or lower within the narrow band.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
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