Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts completing the constitutional succession via interim council and unanimous vote. Since then, the new leader has maintained a low public profile amid persistent health speculation, yet state media and President Masoud Pezeshkian have affirmed meetings, described him as functional, and released or promised footage while advancing IRGC-linked appointments and security reshuffles. Economic pressures, including sharp inflation, coexist with ongoing diplomatic channels and a fragile post-conflict posture, but no verified challenges to de facto authority have emerged. Trader probabilities remain low for near-term change and rise modestly over 2027 horizons, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated continuity mechanisms and the high barriers to rapid leadership turnover in the theocratic structure.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$24,057,007 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
September 30
3%
October 31
7%
November 30
10%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
16%
June 30, 2027
25%
$24,057,007 KL.
August 31
$1,461,653 KL.
<1%
September 30
$490,857 KL.
3%
October 31
$26,233 KL.
7%
November 30
$18,839 KL.
10%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
$4,120,003 KL.
16%
June 30, 2027
$251,699 KL.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts completing the constitutional succession via interim council and unanimous vote. Since then, the new leader has maintained a low public profile amid persistent health speculation, yet state media and President Masoud Pezeshkian have affirmed meetings, described him as functional, and released or promised footage while advancing IRGC-linked appointments and security reshuffles. Economic pressures, including sharp inflation, coexist with ongoing diplomatic channels and a fragile post-conflict posture, but no verified challenges to de facto authority have emerged. Trader probabilities remain low for near-term change and rise modestly over 2027 horizons, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated continuity mechanisms and the high barriers to rapid leadership turnover in the theocratic structure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Khối lượng
$24,057,007Ngày kết thúc
Jul 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts completing the constitutional succession via interim council and unanimous vote. Since then, the new leader has maintained a low public profile amid persistent health speculation, yet state media and President Masoud Pezeshkian have affirmed meetings, described him as functional, and released or promised footage while advancing IRGC-linked appointments and security reshuffles. Economic pressures, including sharp inflation, coexist with ongoing diplomatic channels and a fragile post-conflict posture, but no verified challenges to de facto authority have emerged. Trader probabilities remain low for near-term change and rise modestly over 2027 horizons, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated continuity mechanisms and the high barriers to rapid leadership turnover in the theocratic structure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$24,057,007Ngày kết thúc
Jul 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts completing the constitutional succession via interim council and unanimous vote. Since then, the new leader has maintained a low public profile amid persistent health speculation, yet state media and President Masoud Pezeshkian have affirmed meetings, described him as functional, and released or promised footage while advancing IRGC-linked appointments and security reshuffles. Economic pressures, including sharp inflation, coexist with ongoing diplomatic channels and a fragile post-conflict posture, but no verified challenges to de facto authority have emerged. Trader probabilities remain low for near-term change and rise modestly over 2027 horizons, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated continuity mechanisms and the high barriers to rapid leadership turnover in the theocratic structure.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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