**Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures from supply shocks have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s July–October 2026 policy path.** The August employment report, showing 162,000 jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.1%, reinforced views that the economy remains strong enough to tolerate current policy settings or even warrant tightening. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% through the July 29 meeting (9-3 vote, three dissents favoring a hike), market-implied odds heavily favor “Other” scenarios at 62% over the pure pause–pause–pause path at 36%, reflecting bets on at least one 25-basis-point increase amid elevated core PCE near 3.7% and energy-driven price pressures. Upcoming September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, alongside fresh CPI and PPI releases, remain key catalysts that could shift the rate-path consensus priced into futures.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOther 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,036 KL.
$748,036 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
62%
Other 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$748,036 KL.
$748,036 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$250,736 KL.
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,624 KL.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,317 KL.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 KL.
<1%
Other
$319,568 KL.
62%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures from supply shocks have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s July–October 2026 policy path.** The August employment report, showing 162,000 jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.1%, reinforced views that the economy remains strong enough to tolerate current policy settings or even warrant tightening. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% through the July 29 meeting (9-3 vote, three dissents favoring a hike), market-implied odds heavily favor “Other” scenarios at 62% over the pure pause–pause–pause path at 36%, reflecting bets on at least one 25-basis-point increase amid elevated core PCE near 3.7% and energy-driven price pressures. Upcoming September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, alongside fresh CPI and PPI releases, remain key catalysts that could shift the rate-path consensus priced into futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$748,036Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures from supply shocks have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s July–October 2026 policy path.** The August employment report, showing 162,000 jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.1%, reinforced views that the economy remains strong enough to tolerate current policy settings or even warrant tightening. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% through the July 29 meeting (9-3 vote, three dissents favoring a hike), market-implied odds heavily favor “Other” scenarios at 62% over the pure pause–pause–pause path at 36%, reflecting bets on at least one 25-basis-point increase amid elevated core PCE near 3.7% and energy-driven price pressures. Upcoming September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, alongside fresh CPI and PPI releases, remain key catalysts that could shift the rate-path consensus priced into futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$748,036Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Resilient U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures from supply shocks have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s July–October 2026 policy path.** The August employment report, showing 162,000 jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.1%, reinforced views that the economy remains strong enough to tolerate current policy settings or even warrant tightening. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% through the July 29 meeting (9-3 vote, three dissents favoring a hike), market-implied odds heavily favor “Other” scenarios at 62% over the pure pause–pause–pause path at 36%, reflecting bets on at least one 25-basis-point increase amid elevated core PCE near 3.7% and energy-driven price pressures. Upcoming September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings, alongside fresh CPI and PPI releases, remain key catalysts that could shift the rate-path consensus priced into futures.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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