**Traders assign an 82% probability that the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires fails to pass the November 2026 election.** The measure, backed by SEIU-UHW and filed as Initiative 25-0024, would tax net worth above $1 billion (based on residency as of early 2026) to fund healthcare, K-14 education, and food assistance amid federal cuts. Supporters submitted over 1.5 million signatures in April 2026—well above the ~875,000 threshold—with verification due by June 25, 2026. However, Governor Gavin Newsom has actively opposed qualification, while an opposition coalition has begun organized campaigning. Legal challenges, potential billionaire relocation reducing the tax base, and historical resistance to novel wealth taxes contribute to the current trader consensus reflected in the odds. Qualification itself remains uncertain as the deadline approaches.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
$3,571,331 KL.
$3,571,331 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Có
$3,571,331 KL.
$3,571,331 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 82% probability that the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires fails to pass the November 2026 election.** The measure, backed by SEIU-UHW and filed as Initiative 25-0024, would tax net worth above $1 billion (based on residency as of early 2026) to fund healthcare, K-14 education, and food assistance amid federal cuts. Supporters submitted over 1.5 million signatures in April 2026—well above the ~875,000 threshold—with verification due by June 25, 2026.
However, Governor Gavin Newsom has actively opposed qualification, while an opposition coalition has begun organized campaigning. Legal challenges, potential billionaire relocation reducing the tax base, and historical resistance to novel wealth taxes contribute to the current trader consensus reflected in the odds. Qualification itself remains uncertain as the deadline approaches.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,571,331Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 82% probability that the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires fails to pass the November 2026 election.** The measure, backed by SEIU-UHW and filed as Initiative 25-0024, would tax net worth above $1 billion (based on residency as of early 2026) to fund healthcare, K-14 education, and food assistance amid federal cuts. Supporters submitted over 1.5 million signatures in April 2026—well above the ~875,000 threshold—with verification due by June 25, 2026.
However, Governor Gavin Newsom has actively opposed qualification, while an opposition coalition has begun organized campaigning. Legal challenges, potential billionaire relocation reducing the tax base, and historical resistance to novel wealth taxes contribute to the current trader consensus reflected in the odds. Qualification itself remains uncertain as the deadline approaches.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$3,571,331Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 82% probability that the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires fails to pass the November 2026 election.** The measure, backed by SEIU-UHW and filed as Initiative 25-0024, would tax net worth above $1 billion (based on residency as of early 2026) to fund healthcare, K-14 education, and food assistance amid federal cuts. Supporters submitted over 1.5 million signatures in April 2026—well above the ~875,000 threshold—with verification due by June 25, 2026. However, Governor Gavin Newsom has actively opposed qualification, while an opposition coalition has begun organized campaigning. Legal challenges, potential billionaire relocation reducing the tax base, and historical resistance to novel wealth taxes contribute to the current trader consensus reflected in the odds. Qualification itself remains uncertain as the deadline approaches.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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