South Africa's strong home advantage at altitude in Johannesburg for the third Test on September 5 underpins the 67% implied probability for the Springboks, following their clinical 33-26 response in Cape Town that leveled the four-match series at 1-1. The world champions dominated the contact area and breakdown with returning captain Siya Kolisi scoring, while Cheslin Kolbe's 18 points from the tee highlighted improved accuracy after the first-Test loss. New Zealand's 26.5% reflects attacking promise—four tries despite lineout and set-piece issues—but historical struggles on the highveld and the need for forward reinforcements limit their upside. A draw remains a low-probability 5% outcome in this physical, high-stakes encounter.