Russian forces have conducted repeated mechanized and infantry assaults on Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast since 2025, seeking to advance toward Orikhiv, yet Ukrainian units including the 118th Mechanized Brigade have retained control of the village and surrounding positions through fortified defenses, drone strikes, and local counteractions. Russian claims of capture in November 2025 and other dates lack independent confirmation, with open-source mapping showing persistent fighting, partial gray zones, and only marginal Russian gains in the sector. As of early September 2026, Ukrainian reports note ongoing Russian probes repelled near the settlement, amid broader frontline attrition favoring incremental rather than decisive advances. Trader assessments of near-term capture probabilities reflect this extended defensive record and limited recent progress.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
$393,654 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
September 30
9%
December 31
59%
$393,654 Обс.
September 30
$292,277 Обс.
9%
December 31
$23,294 Обс.
59%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated mechanized and infantry assaults on Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast since 2025, seeking to advance toward Orikhiv, yet Ukrainian units including the 118th Mechanized Brigade have retained control of the village and surrounding positions through fortified defenses, drone strikes, and local counteractions. Russian claims of capture in November 2025 and other dates lack independent confirmation, with open-source mapping showing persistent fighting, partial gray zones, and only marginal Russian gains in the sector. As of early September 2026, Ukrainian reports note ongoing Russian probes repelled near the settlement, amid broader frontline attrition favoring incremental rather than decisive advances. Trader assessments of near-term capture probabilities reflect this extended defensive record and limited recent progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 24, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Обсяг
$393,654Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 24, 2026, 8:55 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated mechanized and infantry assaults on Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast since 2025, seeking to advance toward Orikhiv, yet Ukrainian units including the 118th Mechanized Brigade have retained control of the village and surrounding positions through fortified defenses, drone strikes, and local counteractions. Russian claims of capture in November 2025 and other dates lack independent confirmation, with open-source mapping showing persistent fighting, partial gray zones, and only marginal Russian gains in the sector. As of early September 2026, Ukrainian reports note ongoing Russian probes repelled near the settlement, amid broader frontline attrition favoring incremental rather than decisive advances. Trader assessments of near-term capture probabilities reflect this extended defensive record and limited recent progress.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Обсяг
$393,654Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 24, 2026, 8:55 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted repeated mechanized and infantry assaults on Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast since 2025, seeking to advance toward Orikhiv, yet Ukrainian units including the 118th Mechanized Brigade have retained control of the village and surrounding positions through fortified defenses, drone strikes, and local counteractions. Russian claims of capture in November 2025 and other dates lack independent confirmation, with open-source mapping showing persistent fighting, partial gray zones, and only marginal Russian gains in the sector. As of early September 2026, Ukrainian reports note ongoing Russian probes repelled near the settlement, amid broader frontline attrition favoring incremental rather than decisive advances. Trader assessments of near-term capture probabilities reflect this extended defensive record and limited recent progress.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання