The four core 2026 Senate contests—Georgia (incumbent Jon Ossoff), Michigan (open Democratic seat after Gary Peters), North Carolina (open Republican seat after Thom Tillis), and Maine (incumbent Susan Collins)—form the decisive map for any Democratic majority push, with current trader consensus reflecting narrow polling averages and toss-up or lean ratings from major forecasters. Competitive balance stems from mixed early indicators on candidate recruitment, fundraising edges, and state-specific dynamics, including Democratic advantages in North Carolina and vulnerabilities in the two open seats. Recent rating shifts toward Democrats in some analyses have kept the sweep probability near even, while historical base rates for multi-seat flips underscore the challenge. Upcoming primaries, fall debates, and late-cycle polling in these battlegrounds could shift odds, as could broader turnout patterns or national conditions before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
51% шанс
$20,164 Обс.
$20,164 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
51% шанс
$20,164 Обс.
$20,164 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The four core 2026 Senate contests—Georgia (incumbent Jon Ossoff), Michigan (open Democratic seat after Gary Peters), North Carolina (open Republican seat after Thom Tillis), and Maine (incumbent Susan Collins)—form the decisive map for any Democratic majority push, with current trader consensus reflecting narrow polling averages and toss-up or lean ratings from major forecasters. Competitive balance stems from mixed early indicators on candidate recruitment, fundraising edges, and state-specific dynamics, including Democratic advantages in North Carolina and vulnerabilities in the two open seats. Recent rating shifts toward Democrats in some analyses have kept the sweep probability near even, while historical base rates for multi-seat flips underscore the challenge. Upcoming primaries, fall debates, and late-cycle polling in these battlegrounds could shift odds, as could broader turnout patterns or national conditions before November 3.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$20,164Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The four core 2026 Senate contests—Georgia (incumbent Jon Ossoff), Michigan (open Democratic seat after Gary Peters), North Carolina (open Republican seat after Thom Tillis), and Maine (incumbent Susan Collins)—form the decisive map for any Democratic majority push, with current trader consensus reflecting narrow polling averages and toss-up or lean ratings from major forecasters. Competitive balance stems from mixed early indicators on candidate recruitment, fundraising edges, and state-specific dynamics, including Democratic advantages in North Carolina and vulnerabilities in the two open seats. Recent rating shifts toward Democrats in some analyses have kept the sweep probability near even, while historical base rates for multi-seat flips underscore the challenge. Upcoming primaries, fall debates, and late-cycle polling in these battlegrounds could shift odds, as could broader turnout patterns or national conditions before November 3.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Обсяг
$20,164Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The four core 2026 Senate contests—Georgia (incumbent Jon Ossoff), Michigan (open Democratic seat after Gary Peters), North Carolina (open Republican seat after Thom Tillis), and Maine (incumbent Susan Collins)—form the decisive map for any Democratic majority push, with current trader consensus reflecting narrow polling averages and toss-up or lean ratings from major forecasters. Competitive balance stems from mixed early indicators on candidate recruitment, fundraising edges, and state-specific dynamics, including Democratic advantages in North Carolina and vulnerabilities in the two open seats. Recent rating shifts toward Democrats in some analyses have kept the sweep probability near even, while historical base rates for multi-seat flips underscore the challenge. Upcoming primaries, fall debates, and late-cycle polling in these battlegrounds could shift odds, as could broader turnout patterns or national conditions before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання