Nassourdine Imavov leads the market at 68.5% implied probability due to his five-fight win streak since losing a 2023 decision to Sean Strickland, including recent knockouts of Jared Cannonier and Israel Adesanya, combined with direct UFC assurances in July that his next bout would be for the middleweight title. Imavov has emphasized the matchup feels personal after Strickland’s trash talk. Khamzat Chimaev sits at 27.5% as the former champion who dropped a close split decision to Strickland at UFC 328 in May and continues pushing aggressively for an immediate rematch through social media, though critics including Dricus Du Plessis call the idea premature given zero title defenses from either fighter. Du Plessis remains at just 2.6% despite two prior wins over Strickland, as his recent victory over Kamaru Usman has not shifted the conversation. Strickland’s ongoing shoulder recovery has pushed his return toward late 2026, giving matchmakers time to weigh Imavov’s credentials against Chimaev’s rematch demand.