The Supreme Court’s June 2026 decision to grant certiorari in challenges to assault weapons bans in Connecticut and Cook County, Illinois, anchors trader views on whether the justices will invalidate such restrictions. With oral arguments set for the fall term and a ruling expected by mid-2027, the 6-3 conservative majority’s recent Second Amendment expansions under the Bruen historical-tradition test create a realistic path for striking down the laws, especially given signals from Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh. Roughly a dozen states maintain similar measures, so the outcome carries broad implications. The slim 55.5% implied probability for invalidation captures lingering uncertainty over Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett while reflecting the court’s demonstrated willingness to protect commonly owned firearms like the AR-15.