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icon for SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?

SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?

icon for SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?

SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?

56% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
56% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, decision to grant certiorari in consolidated challenges to AR-15-style rifle bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has become the central driver of trader sentiment. The 6-3 conservative majority has steadily expanded Second Amendment protections since the 2022 Bruen decision, and four justices previously signaled that such bans likely violate the “common use” test from Heller. A new national firearms survey estimating roughly 60 million AR-15-type rifles in civilian hands has been cited in briefs to strengthen that argument. Oral arguments are scheduled for the fall 2026 term, with a ruling expected by mid-2027. While the Court’s recent gun-rights trajectory supports a meaningful chance of invalidation, the outcome still hinges on Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett, leaving the market near even odds that reflect both the bloc’s lean and residual uncertainty.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$4
Дата завершення
Aug 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, decision to grant certiorari in consolidated challenges to AR-15-style rifle bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has become the central driver of trader sentiment. The 6-3 conservative majority has steadily expanded Second Amendment protections since the 2022 Bruen decision, and four justices previously signaled that such bans likely violate the “common use” test from Heller. A new national firearms survey estimating roughly 60 million AR-15-type rifles in civilian hands has been cited in briefs to strengthen that argument. Oral arguments are scheduled for the fall 2026 term, with a ruling expected by mid-2027. While the Court’s recent gun-rights trajectory supports a meaningful chance of invalidation, the outcome still hinges on Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett, leaving the market near even odds that reflect both the bloc’s lean and residual uncertainty.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$4
Дата завершення
Aug 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 56% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 56¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 56%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Jul 1, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?» — 56% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 56% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.