Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 21–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36). This reflects sustained erosion tied to the post-October 7 security environment, fallout from the judicial overhaul, and coalition strains under Prime Minister Netanyahu. Opposition parties, particularly Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and the Bennett-Lapid Together alliance, have gained ground in multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Channel 12, with opposition blocs often leading the right-wing coalition. The August 17 Likud primaries, marked by low turnout and internal disputes, have not reversed these trends. Traders assign high implied probability to seat losses because no recent polling shows Likud retaining or exceeding its current representation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено88% шанс
$11,128 Обс.
$11,128 Обс.
Oct 26, 2026
88% шанс
$11,128 Обс.
$11,128 Обс.
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 21–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36). This reflects sustained erosion tied to the post-October 7 security environment, fallout from the judicial overhaul, and coalition strains under Prime Minister Netanyahu. Opposition parties, particularly Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and the Bennett-Lapid Together alliance, have gained ground in multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Channel 12, with opposition blocs often leading the right-wing coalition. The August 17 Likud primaries, marked by low turnout and internal disputes, have not reversed these trends. Traders assign high implied probability to seat losses because no recent polling shows Likud retaining or exceeding its current representation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$11,128Дата завершення
Oct 27, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 21–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36). This reflects sustained erosion tied to the post-October 7 security environment, fallout from the judicial overhaul, and coalition strains under Prime Minister Netanyahu. Opposition parties, particularly Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and the Bennett-Lapid Together alliance, have gained ground in multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Channel 12, with opposition blocs often leading the right-wing coalition. The August 17 Likud primaries, marked by low turnout and internal disputes, have not reversed these trends. Traders assign high implied probability to seat losses because no recent polling shows Likud retaining or exceeding its current representation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Обсяг
$11,128Дата завершення
Oct 27, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 21–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36). This reflects sustained erosion tied to the post-October 7 security environment, fallout from the judicial overhaul, and coalition strains under Prime Minister Netanyahu. Opposition parties, particularly Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and the Bennett-Lapid Together alliance, have gained ground in multiple surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Channel 12, with opposition blocs often leading the right-wing coalition. The August 17 Likud primaries, marked by low turnout and internal disputes, have not reversed these trends. Traders assign high implied probability to seat losses because no recent polling shows Likud retaining or exceeding its current representation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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