Traders assign a 96.9% probability to no U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026 due to entrenched economic interdependence under USMCA, extensive security cooperation on fentanyl and border issues, and repeated Mexican rejection of unilateral troop deployments. Rhetoric from the Trump administration has focused on potential targeted actions against cartels rather than large-scale military operations, while bilateral diplomacy and congressional constraints continue to favor joint efforts over invasion. No official preparations, authorizations, or military deployments indicate such a move. Limited scenarios that could still shift odds include a major breakdown in cooperation amid cartel escalation or an unforeseen security crisis, though these remain far more likely to produce strikes or sanctions than full invasion.