France enters Group I as the clear frontrunner, buoyed by deep squad resources, multiple tournament winners, and consistent high-level performances in recent UEFA qualifiers and friendlies. Norway trails due to Erling Haaland’s scoring threat and an unbeaten 2025 qualifying campaign that showcased strong attacking output, though limited depth behind the front line caps their implied probability. Senegal benefits from disciplined organization and recent CAF success that produced clean sheets and counter-attacking efficiency, keeping them in contention for a top-two finish. Iraq remains a distant outsider, constrained by lower FIFA ranking, limited recent results against elite opposition, and the steep challenge of facing three teams with superior experience and physicality in the opening matches beginning June 16.