Carlos Alcaraz’s ongoing right-wrist injury, sustained in April and responsible for withdrawals from multiple majors and the Canadian Open, has left his US Open status finely balanced at roughly even odds. The latest withdrawal from the Cincinnati Open, a key final warm-up, underscores persistent concerns over fitness and match readiness after months sidelined, though the defending champion remains on the official entry list and has shown light training progress. Winston-Salem later this month offers the last realistic tune-up opportunity, while any medical clearance or positive updates on recovery could quickly shift sentiment toward participation; conversely, further setbacks or a conservative rest decision would favor absence.