Apple’s established annual September launch cadence for flagship iPhones drives the 98.6% market-implied probability of an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and analyst consensus confirm that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, along with a rumored foldable variant, remain on track for a September 2026 keynote and on-sale date shortly afterward. This aligns with Apple’s 15-year pattern of delivering new hardware each fall, supported by ongoing development of features like advanced silicon and camera systems. While traders acknowledge realistic risks such as minor supply-chain delays pushing the base iPhone 18 model into early 2027 or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, these factors are viewed as unlikely to eliminate any 2026 releases entirely given the advanced stage of production.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว99% โอกาส
$173,242 ปริมาณ
$173,242 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
99% โอกาส
$173,242 ปริมาณ
$173,242 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual September launch cadence for flagship iPhones drives the 98.6% market-implied probability of an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and analyst consensus confirm that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, along with a rumored foldable variant, remain on track for a September 2026 keynote and on-sale date shortly afterward. This aligns with Apple’s 15-year pattern of delivering new hardware each fall, supported by ongoing development of features like advanced silicon and camera systems. While traders acknowledge realistic risks such as minor supply-chain delays pushing the base iPhone 18 model into early 2027 or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, these factors are viewed as unlikely to eliminate any 2026 releases entirely given the advanced stage of production.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$173,242วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual September launch cadence for flagship iPhones drives the 98.6% market-implied probability of an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and analyst consensus confirm that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, along with a rumored foldable variant, remain on track for a September 2026 keynote and on-sale date shortly afterward. This aligns with Apple’s 15-year pattern of delivering new hardware each fall, supported by ongoing development of features like advanced silicon and camera systems. While traders acknowledge realistic risks such as minor supply-chain delays pushing the base iPhone 18 model into early 2027 or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, these factors are viewed as unlikely to eliminate any 2026 releases entirely given the advanced stage of production.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$173,242วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual September launch cadence for flagship iPhones drives the 98.6% market-implied probability of an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and analyst consensus confirm that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, along with a rumored foldable variant, remain on track for a September 2026 keynote and on-sale date shortly afterward. This aligns with Apple’s 15-year pattern of delivering new hardware each fall, supported by ongoing development of features like advanced silicon and camera systems. While traders acknowledge realistic risks such as minor supply-chain delays pushing the base iPhone 18 model into early 2027 or unforeseen regulatory hurdles, these factors are viewed as unlikely to eliminate any 2026 releases entirely given the advanced stage of production.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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