Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone line forms the core driver behind the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders cite consistent September timing over more than a decade, ongoing supply-chain preparations reported in credible industry channels, and the absence of any official signals pointing to delays or cancellation. While the probability reflects strong skin-in-the-game consensus, realistic factors that could still shift outcomes include major component shortages, last-minute hardware redesigns, or regulatory approvals in key markets that occasionally push availability windows by weeks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว99% โอกาส
$173,200 ปริมาณ
$173,200 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
99% โอกาส
$173,200 ปริมาณ
$173,200 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone line forms the core driver behind the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders cite consistent September timing over more than a decade, ongoing supply-chain preparations reported in credible industry channels, and the absence of any official signals pointing to delays or cancellation. While the probability reflects strong skin-in-the-game consensus, realistic factors that could still shift outcomes include major component shortages, last-minute hardware redesigns, or regulatory approvals in key markets that occasionally push availability windows by weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$173,200วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone line forms the core driver behind the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders cite consistent September timing over more than a decade, ongoing supply-chain preparations reported in credible industry channels, and the absence of any official signals pointing to delays or cancellation. While the probability reflects strong skin-in-the-game consensus, realistic factors that could still shift outcomes include major component shortages, last-minute hardware redesigns, or regulatory approvals in key markets that occasionally push availability windows by weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$173,200วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone line forms the core driver behind the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders cite consistent September timing over more than a decade, ongoing supply-chain preparations reported in credible industry channels, and the absence of any official signals pointing to delays or cancellation. While the probability reflects strong skin-in-the-game consensus, realistic factors that could still shift outcomes include major component shortages, last-minute hardware redesigns, or regulatory approvals in key markets that occasionally push availability windows by weeks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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