The crowded field of nine candidates for the Tongatapu 2 by-election on 8 October has produced closely matched probabilities, reflecting vote fragmentation in Tonga’s first-past-the-post system. The vacancy arose after Semisi Sika was unseated by parliament following his 2025 election conviction on bribery and campaign finance violations, with the prior incumbent ‘Uhilamoelangi Fasi opting not to stand. Recent nominations on 2–3 September confirmed a split among local contenders including Malakai Koloamatangi, Samiuela Vea, Alvin Lafu Sika, Mele ‘Amanaki, and Mounu Uaisele, with some prospective entrants withdrawing to consolidate support behind others. Absent recent polling data or dominant endorsements, trader consensus shows no single frontrunner, leaving room for late campaign developments or turnout patterns to shift the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMele Teusivi 'Amanaki 39%
Samiuela Vea 37%
Lei Paasi 31%
Alvin Lafu Sika 30%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki
39%
Samiuela Vea
37%
Lei Paasi
31%
Alvin Lafu Sika
30%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua
25%
'Olioni Manoa
24%
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila
23%
Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi
23%
Mounu Uaisele
8%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 39%
Samiuela Vea 37%
Lei Paasi 31%
Alvin Lafu Sika 30%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki
39%
Samiuela Vea
37%
Lei Paasi
31%
Alvin Lafu Sika
30%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua
25%
'Olioni Manoa
24%
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila
23%
Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi
23%
Mounu Uaisele
8%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The crowded field of nine candidates for the Tongatapu 2 by-election on 8 October has produced closely matched probabilities, reflecting vote fragmentation in Tonga’s first-past-the-post system. The vacancy arose after Semisi Sika was unseated by parliament following his 2025 election conviction on bribery and campaign finance violations, with the prior incumbent ‘Uhilamoelangi Fasi opting not to stand. Recent nominations on 2–3 September confirmed a split among local contenders including Malakai Koloamatangi, Samiuela Vea, Alvin Lafu Sika, Mele ‘Amanaki, and Mounu Uaisele, with some prospective entrants withdrawing to consolidate support behind others. Absent recent polling data or dominant endorsements, trader consensus shows no single frontrunner, leaving room for late campaign developments or turnout patterns to shift the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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