Darializa Avila Chevalier’s narrow victory over incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026, Democratic primary for New York’s 13th congressional district produced final tallies showing a margin under 4 percentage points, with Avila Chevalier at roughly 48.6 percent. This outcome aligns with late polling trends that narrowed from earlier deficits and reflected strong grassroots mobilization in Manhattan precincts alongside endorsements from progressive city leaders. Traders have priced the sub-5 percent bin at 98.2 percent because nearly complete vote counts and standard certification processes leave little room for the margin to widen materially. Recounts, disputes over absentee ballots, or delayed reporting from a small number of precincts remain the primary scenarios that could still push the certified margin above 5 percent, though historical patterns in New York primaries suggest such adjustments are uncommon once 88 percent or more of ballots are tallied.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAvila Chevalier <5% 98.3%
Avila Chevalier 10%+ 1.7%
Avila Chevalier 5–10% 1.1%
Other <1%
$89,926 ปริมาณ
$89,926 ปริมาณ
Jun 23, 2026
Avila Chevalier 10%+
2%
Avila Chevalier 5–10%
1%
Avila Chevalier <5%
98%
Other
<1%
Avila Chevalier <5% 98.3%
Avila Chevalier 10%+ 1.7%
Avila Chevalier 5–10% 1.1%
Other <1%
$89,926 ปริมาณ
$89,926 ปริมาณ
Jun 23, 2026
Avila Chevalier 10%+
$5,981 ปริมาณ
2%
Avila Chevalier 5–10%
$7,521 ปริมาณ
1%
Avila Chevalier <5%
$21,959 ปริมาณ
98%
Other
$2,194 ปริมาณ
<1%
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darializa Avila Chevalier’s narrow victory over incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026, Democratic primary for New York’s 13th congressional district produced final tallies showing a margin under 4 percentage points, with Avila Chevalier at roughly 48.6 percent. This outcome aligns with late polling trends that narrowed from earlier deficits and reflected strong grassroots mobilization in Manhattan precincts alongside endorsements from progressive city leaders. Traders have priced the sub-5 percent bin at 98.2 percent because nearly complete vote counts and standard certification processes leave little room for the margin to widen materially. Recounts, disputes over absentee ballots, or delayed reporting from a small number of precincts remain the primary scenarios that could still push the certified margin above 5 percent, though historical patterns in New York primaries suggest such adjustments are uncommon once 88 percent or more of ballots are tallied.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$89,926วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darializa Avila Chevalier’s narrow victory over incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026, Democratic primary for New York’s 13th congressional district produced final tallies showing a margin under 4 percentage points, with Avila Chevalier at roughly 48.6 percent. This outcome aligns with late polling trends that narrowed from earlier deficits and reflected strong grassroots mobilization in Manhattan precincts alongside endorsements from progressive city leaders. Traders have priced the sub-5 percent bin at 98.2 percent because nearly complete vote counts and standard certification processes leave little room for the margin to widen materially. Recounts, disputes over absentee ballots, or delayed reporting from a small number of precincts remain the primary scenarios that could still push the certified margin above 5 percent, though historical patterns in New York primaries suggest such adjustments are uncommon once 88 percent or more of ballots are tallied.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$89,926วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Darializa Avila Chevalier’s narrow victory over incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026, Democratic primary for New York’s 13th congressional district produced final tallies showing a margin under 4 percentage points, with Avila Chevalier at roughly 48.6 percent. This outcome aligns with late polling trends that narrowed from earlier deficits and reflected strong grassroots mobilization in Manhattan precincts alongside endorsements from progressive city leaders. Traders have priced the sub-5 percent bin at 98.2 percent because nearly complete vote counts and standard certification processes leave little room for the margin to widen materially. Recounts, disputes over absentee ballots, or delayed reporting from a small number of precincts remain the primary scenarios that could still push the certified margin above 5 percent, though historical patterns in New York primaries suggest such adjustments are uncommon once 88 percent or more of ballots are tallied.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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