**Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout** markets show the strongest trader consensus around 1.4M–1.6M total ballots cast. This positioning aligns with historical midterm patterns in the state, where eligible-voter turnout has averaged roughly 42% in recent non-presidential cycles, translating to approximately 1.2M–1.5M votes given Louisiana’s roughly 3 million registered voters. The 2022 general election produced about 1.4 million ballots, providing a recent benchmark. Recent primary and runoff voting was notably lower than prior jungle-primary cycles, with May participation near 28% and the June party runoffs dropping to around 17%, reflecting the shift to semi-closed primaries and reduced excitement after the early ouster of incumbent Bill Cassidy. Heading into the November 3 general election, factors supporting the central 1.4M–1.5M range include steady registration levels, standard midterm mobilization by both parties, and the Letlow–Davis matchup’s profile as a Republican-leaning contest without the intensity of a presidential year. Late-cycle developments such as candidate events, early-voting trends, or turnout drives could still shift probabilities within the 45–55% band for the leading buckets.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLouisiana Senate Election: Turnout
Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout
1.4M-1.5M 45%
1.5M-1.6M 31.9%
1.3M-1.4M 14.9%
1.2M-1.3M 6%
<1.1M
4%
1.1M-1.2M
4%
1.2M-1.3M
6%
1.3M-1.4M
15%
1.4M-1.5M
45%
1.5M-1.6M
32%
1.6M-1.7M
5%
1.7M+
4%
1.4M-1.5M 45%
1.5M-1.6M 31.9%
1.3M-1.4M 14.9%
1.2M-1.3M 6%
<1.1M
4%
1.1M-1.2M
4%
1.2M-1.3M
6%
1.3M-1.4M
15%
1.4M-1.5M
45%
1.5M-1.6M
32%
1.6M-1.7M
5%
1.7M+
4%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout** markets show the strongest trader consensus around 1.4M–1.6M total ballots cast. This positioning aligns with historical midterm patterns in the state, where eligible-voter turnout has averaged roughly 42% in recent non-presidential cycles, translating to approximately 1.2M–1.5M votes given Louisiana’s roughly 3 million registered voters. The 2022 general election produced about 1.4 million ballots, providing a recent benchmark. Recent primary and runoff voting was notably lower than prior jungle-primary cycles, with May participation near 28% and the June party runoffs dropping to around 17%, reflecting the shift to semi-closed primaries and reduced excitement after the early ouster of incumbent Bill Cassidy. Heading into the November 3 general election, factors supporting the central 1.4M–1.5M range include steady registration levels, standard midterm mobilization by both parties, and the Letlow–Davis matchup’s profile as a Republican-leaning contest without the intensity of a presidential year. Late-cycle developments such as candidate events, early-voting trends, or turnout drives could still shift probabilities within the 45–55% band for the leading buckets.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
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