Mojtaba Khamenei holds the position of Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts formalizing his selection in March amid an interim council and wartime disruptions. Recent trader sentiment reflects low near-term change probabilities, as President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly affirmed Khamenei’s health after an August 2026 meeting, while the IRGC and senior officials have consolidated influence through new military appointments and a collective security apparatus. Economic pressures, including sharp food price rises, and ongoing U.S. ceasefire negotiations introduce uncertainty, yet institutional continuity and the absence of major internal challenges or scheduled votes keep implied odds of leadership transition modest through year-end and into 2027.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$24,057,007 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2027
August 31
<1%
September 30
3%
October 31
7%
November 30
10%
31 ธันวาคม
16%
June 30, 2027
25%
$24,057,007 ปริมาณ
August 31
$1,461,694 ปริมาณ
<1%
September 30
$490,857 ปริมาณ
3%
October 31
$26,233 ปริมาณ
7%
November 30
$18,839 ปริมาณ
10%
31 ธันวาคม
$4,120,003 ปริมาณ
16%
June 30, 2027
$251,699 ปริมาณ
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei holds the position of Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts formalizing his selection in March amid an interim council and wartime disruptions. Recent trader sentiment reflects low near-term change probabilities, as President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly affirmed Khamenei’s health after an August 2026 meeting, while the IRGC and senior officials have consolidated influence through new military appointments and a collective security apparatus. Economic pressures, including sharp food price rises, and ongoing U.S. ceasefire negotiations introduce uncertainty, yet institutional continuity and the absence of major internal challenges or scheduled votes keep implied odds of leadership transition modest through year-end and into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,057,007วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei holds the position of Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts formalizing his selection in March amid an interim council and wartime disruptions. Recent trader sentiment reflects low near-term change probabilities, as President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly affirmed Khamenei’s health after an August 2026 meeting, while the IRGC and senior officials have consolidated influence through new military appointments and a collective security apparatus. Economic pressures, including sharp food price rises, and ongoing U.S. ceasefire negotiations introduce uncertainty, yet institutional continuity and the absence of major internal challenges or scheduled votes keep implied odds of leadership transition modest through year-end and into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,057,007วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei holds the position of Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts formalizing his selection in March amid an interim council and wartime disruptions. Recent trader sentiment reflects low near-term change probabilities, as President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly affirmed Khamenei’s health after an August 2026 meeting, while the IRGC and senior officials have consolidated influence through new military appointments and a collective security apparatus. Economic pressures, including sharp food price rises, and ongoing U.S. ceasefire negotiations introduce uncertainty, yet institutional continuity and the absence of major internal challenges or scheduled votes keep implied odds of leadership transition modest through year-end and into 2027.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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