No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater have occurred globally between August 3 and August 8, 2026, with only two M6.3 events recorded on August 5—one south of the Kermadec Islands at depth and another near Sarangani, Philippines. Global seismicity follows USGS baselines of roughly 15–20 events of M6.5+ annually, often clustered along subduction zones, but the current quiet period aligns with typical short-term variability and the absence of aftershock sequences or large mainshocks. Market-implied odds heavily favor zero events (81.5%) because the final day offers limited time for a qualifying quake to register and because recent model runs and monitoring data show no elevated risk in high-activity regions. One or more additional events remain possible but statistically less likely in the remaining window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
0 82%
1 16%
2 4.1%
3 1.0%
$11,131 ปริมาณ
$11,131 ปริมาณ
0
82%
1
16%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 82%
1 16%
2 4.1%
3 1.0%
$11,131 ปริมาณ
$11,131 ปริมาณ
0
82%
1
16%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
แหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
แหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater have occurred globally between August 3 and August 8, 2026, with only two M6.3 events recorded on August 5—one south of the Kermadec Islands at depth and another near Sarangani, Philippines. Global seismicity follows USGS baselines of roughly 15–20 events of M6.5+ annually, often clustered along subduction zones, but the current quiet period aligns with typical short-term variability and the absence of aftershock sequences or large mainshocks. Market-implied odds heavily favor zero events (81.5%) because the final day offers limited time for a qualifying quake to register and because recent model runs and monitoring data show no elevated risk in high-activity regions. One or more additional events remain possible but statistically less likely in the remaining window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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