Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an expected 8–12 events of magnitude 5.5 or greater per week based on long-term USGS counts of roughly 1,500–2,000 M5–5.9 quakes annually. Trader consensus favoring ≤6 outcomes at 26% reflects the absence of major clusters or foreshock sequences in the latest USGS data through early August 2026, including recent M6.3 events in the Philippines and Japan that have not triggered aftershock swarms exceeding the threshold. Key variables include random fluctuations in tectonic plate stress release, potential under-detection in remote regions, and any new M6+ mainshocks that could elevate totals into the 10–13 range. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries will provide the definitive tally for market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
≤6 24%
7 13%
>13 13%
8 12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
24%
7
13%
8
12%
9
11%
10
10%
11
8%
12
7%
13
6%
>13
13%
≤6 24%
7 13%
>13 13%
8 12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 9, 2026
≤6
$178 ปริมาณ
24%
7
$117 ปริมาณ
13%
8
$51 ปริมาณ
12%
9
$52 ปริมาณ
11%
10
$89 ปริมาณ
10%
11
$50 ปริมาณ
8%
12
$65 ปริมาณ
7%
13
$20 ปริมาณ
6%
>13
$88 ปริมาณ
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an expected 8–12 events of magnitude 5.5 or greater per week based on long-term USGS counts of roughly 1,500–2,000 M5–5.9 quakes annually. Trader consensus favoring ≤6 outcomes at 26% reflects the absence of major clusters or foreshock sequences in the latest USGS data through early August 2026, including recent M6.3 events in the Philippines and Japan that have not triggered aftershock swarms exceeding the threshold. Key variables include random fluctuations in tectonic plate stress release, potential under-detection in remote regions, and any new M6+ mainshocks that could elevate totals into the 10–13 range. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries will provide the definitive tally for market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$710วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an expected 8–12 events of magnitude 5.5 or greater per week based on long-term USGS counts of roughly 1,500–2,000 M5–5.9 quakes annually. Trader consensus favoring ≤6 outcomes at 26% reflects the absence of major clusters or foreshock sequences in the latest USGS data through early August 2026, including recent M6.3 events in the Philippines and Japan that have not triggered aftershock swarms exceeding the threshold. Key variables include random fluctuations in tectonic plate stress release, potential under-detection in remote regions, and any new M6+ mainshocks that could elevate totals into the 10–13 range. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries will provide the definitive tally for market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$710วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an expected 8–12 events of magnitude 5.5 or greater per week based on long-term USGS counts of roughly 1,500–2,000 M5–5.9 quakes annually. Trader consensus favoring ≤6 outcomes at 26% reflects the absence of major clusters or foreshock sequences in the latest USGS data through early August 2026, including recent M6.3 events in the Philippines and Japan that have not triggered aftershock swarms exceeding the threshold. Key variables include random fluctuations in tectonic plate stress release, potential under-detection in remote regions, and any new M6+ mainshocks that could elevate totals into the 10–13 range. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries will provide the definitive tally for market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?
27%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?
48%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?
82%
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