A strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures at +2.6°C as of late August 2026 and over 90% odds of a very strong event peaking in fall or early winter, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment. NOAA and dynamical models indicate this will favor above-normal temperatures across much of the northern United States and Canada through the season, potentially delaying measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or greater) relative to historical medians from NOAA data. Wetter conditions are projected farther south, while northern storm tracks weaken. Key upcoming inputs include updated NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks, ECMWF and UKMO seasonal runs, and weekly ENSO monitoring that could shift implied probabilities for early versus late first-snow outcomes in key markets.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFirst snow of the 2026 season

Buffalo, NY by October 31
35%

Denver, CO by October 31
60%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
56%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
51%

Boston, MA by November 15
59%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
94%

Chicago, IL by November 15
63%

Denver, CO by November 15
74%

Detroit, MI by November 15
91%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
70%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
31%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
70%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
67%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
73%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
73%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
29%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
89%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
72%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
43%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
88%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
66%

Washington, DC by November 30
33%
$6,002 ปริมาณ

Buffalo, NY by October 31
35%

Denver, CO by October 31
60%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
56%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
51%

Boston, MA by November 15
59%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
94%

Chicago, IL by November 15
63%

Denver, CO by November 15
74%

Detroit, MI by November 15
91%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
70%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
31%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
70%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
67%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
73%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
73%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
29%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
89%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
72%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
43%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
88%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
66%

Washington, DC by November 30
33%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...A strengthening super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures at +2.6°C as of late August 2026 and over 90% odds of a very strong event peaking in fall or early winter, stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment. NOAA and dynamical models indicate this will favor above-normal temperatures across much of the northern United States and Canada through the season, potentially delaying measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or greater) relative to historical medians from NOAA data. Wetter conditions are projected farther south, while northern storm tracks weaken. Key upcoming inputs include updated NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks, ECMWF and UKMO seasonal runs, and weekly ENSO monitoring that could shift implied probabilities for early versus late first-snow outcomes in key markets.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว


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