Lithuania, Azerbaijan, and Liechtenstein enter the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League Group D2 phase with no matches yet played, creating a tight race reflected in closely bunched trader consensus around 46-50% for the leading options. Lithuania holds a slight edge from higher FIFA ranking and recent competitive form against similar opponents, while Azerbaijan benefits from home advantage in Baku and steady squad depth. Liechtenstein trails but retains realistic upset potential in a three-team round-robin featuring home-and-away fixtures starting late September. The even spread underscores uncertainty over results in low-scoring, defensive contests typical of League D, with promotion to League C on the line and no dominant historical favorite emerging from prior head-to-heads.